As a result of backing Genesis Dream at odds on for the Coronation Cup, and losing 25 points from my betting bank, I've been going through my records to evaluate how I've done backing odds on shots in the past.
Over that last six months or so I've made money when betting dogs at odds on but only around 10% on turnover. Not to be sniffed at but I think the major problem with betting at odds on is psychological. Even when the selection wins your profit is less than the original stake (obviously) but the return leaves me feeling slightly hard done by. This is nothing compared to when an odds on shot loses and I almost feel robbed, like the money was already won but then taken away.
As a result of this soul searching I've decided to refrain from backing odds on chances in the future and instead try to find an alternative way to play a race. This will either be looking for a solid each way alternative to the favourite or turning to the spread markets to see if there's any value to be had.
It looks like I'll have an early opportunity to try this approach out in the final of the Birmingham Cup on Thursday, we’ll see how it goes.
Cheers
