A fascinating 80th renewal of the Irish Derby from Dublin’s Shelbourne Park is live on Sky Sports 2 tonight. It really does look a race not to miss, coverage starts at 8:00 pm with the big race due off at 9:40 pm.
Speed Figures
T6 – Advantage Johnny 100
T1 – Headleys Bridge 97
T3 – Shelbourne Aston 90
T2 – Ballymac Ruso 88
T5 – Slip The Lark 80
T4 – Maccu Picchu 76
Advantage Johnny tops the figures after getting a flyer in his semi-final, he’s a big chance if he can do the same again. Headleys Bridge has a good draw in the red jacket and will be finishing strongly as will Shelbourne Aston. English representative Ballymac Ruso should be towards the head of affairs early and is not out of it by any means.
Skydogs Tissue
Using the speed figures as a basis and making some adjustment for the draw and likely pace I’ve come up with the tissue below –
9/4 Advantage Johnny, 11/4 Headleys Bridge, 6/1 Ballymac Ruso, 15/2 Shelbourne Aston, 10/1 Slip The Lark, 14/1 Maccu Picchu
Advantage Johnny is available at a very tempting at 5/1. His chance probably depends on him getting out of the boxes as he did in the semi-finals and connections feel he might not be as good in the stripes but I think he’ll get a clear run on the outside with Slip The Lark edging in and that 5’s is just too big. The layers look to have got Headleys Bridge about right at 3/1 but I couldn’t have Ballymac Ruso on my mind at a similar price. Shelbourne Aston has been well supported but is no value at 4/1, a point that also applies to Slip The Lark. That leaves the outsider of the field Maccu Picchu and while it would be difficult to see him getting his nose in front he’s not a 25/1 shot either.
Paddy Power have put up some interesting match bets and Headleys Bridge looks backable at 5/6 to finish in front of Ballymac Ruso. I make him around a 1/2 chance to come home in front of Matt Dartnell’s fawn.
Good luck if you have a bet and best wishes to all the connections, it should be a cracker.
