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Posts archive for: November, 2008
  • Betfred Eclipse

    The Eclipse is live from Nottingham on Sky Sports 3 this evening. Wise Thought is the odds on favourite and he could well go trap to line to land the £8000 first prize put up by sponsors Betfred.

    Speed Figures

    T6 – Wise Thought 100
    T4 – Movealong Blue 86
    T3 – Farloe Merlin 84
    T1 – Judicial Force 80
    T2 – Bawnfune Mal 76
    T5 – Romeo Maldini 74+

    Wise Thought is top rated after his impressive 29.96 (calc) in the first round. He was nine spots slower in the semi finals but still a length and a quarter too good for Charlie Lister’s Farloe Merlin. Movealong Blue is next best but its pretty tight from him down to the sixth rated dog Romeo Maldini who is capable of better than he’s shown so far.

    Skydogs Tissue

    Using the speed figures as a basis and with allowances for the draw and likely early pace I’ve come up with the ‘tissue’ below –

    11/8 Wise Thought, 5/1 Movealong Blue, 7/1 Judicial Force, 15/2 Farloe Merlin, 10/1 Bawnfune Mal, 14/1 Romeo Maldini

    Wise Thought is understandly the favourite, well drawn in stripes and with the early boot to lead he has an excellent chance. The problem is the bookies best offer is 1/2 which is way too short for me to get involved. I have Movealong Blue next best at 5/1 but he’s the rag of the field with the layers and Ladbrokes go a very tempting 16/1. Realistically Paul Philpott’s dog is only playing for second place so rather than support him each way the best bet may be a buy on the spreads or a punt in the ‘without the fav’ market in which Totesport go 13/2. The other dog of interest from a value point of view is David Pruhs’ son of Top Honcho, Judicial Review. Well drawn and with decent early pace I make him a 7/1 shot but he’s widely available at 14/1. Again the best value may in the spreads or backing him without Wise Thought.

    All in all this is a tough race from a punting point view given that Wise Thought is an obvious selection but no value. Movealong Blue is the alternative either on the spreads or without the favourite and it’s the latter market that I’m going to play in. The best price is 13/2 with Totesport but both Bet365 and Betfred offer 6/1 and each way terms of 1/4 the odds 1,2 which looks a pretty safe bet to me. If you fancy including Judicial Review then you could back both him and Movealong Blue to win ‘without the fav’.

  • William Hill All England Cup

    The All England Cup is the main event on Sky's card tonight and Barrie Draper's Boherna Best is the hot favourite as he bids to add this title to the Laurels he picked up at Belle Vue in October.

    Speed Figs

    T4 - Dotland Hit Man 100
    T2 - Boherna Best 80
    T5 - Eye Onthe Pulse 70
    T1 - Eye Onthe Brave 67
    T6 - Droopys Carvalho 40
    T3 - Vacant

    Dotland Hit Man is clear on the figures courtesy of his impressive five length win in the semi finals. The classy Boherna Best is next in followed by the two Mark Wallis trained runners, Eye Onthe Pulse and Eye Onthe Brave.

    Skydogs Tissue

    Using the speed figures as a basis along with some adjustment for the draw and probable early pace I've come up with the 'tissue' below -

    11/10 Dotland Hit Man, 4/1 Boherna Best, 9/2 Eye Onthe Brave, 8/1 Eye Onthe Pulse, 28/1 Droopys Carvalho

    Dotland Hit Man heads my market but the bookies only have him as second best and a generous looking 15/8 is available with Bet365. There is no doubt that's a value price but I am concerned about his draw in trap 4 and I can see him getting tangled up with Eye Onthe Pulse at the first bend. Boherna Best warrants respect but the best price of evens is terribly short. I couldn't be on at that price but will stop short of laying him as I can see him getting on the bunny. Eye Onthe Brave is overpriced for me at 10/1 with Bet365 given that he has the plum draw in red and is the only inside seed in the field. This brindle son of Ballymac Maeve has also got some decent early and if Boherna Best isn't foot perfect at the traps he could well grab the lead at the first bend. That leaves us with Eye Onthe Pulse who is not a bad price at 12/1 while the slow starting Droopys Carvalho looks likely to struggle and I couldn’t have him on my mind at a skinny looking 10/1.

    There are lots of ways this race could be played. I wouldn't put anyone off backing Dotland Hit Man or laying Boherna Best at the prices on offer but for the reasons given above I'm not going down those routes myself. Eye Onthe Brave is too big for me to ignore at 10/1 so I'm going to have a little on him to win but my main bet will be for him to finish in front of Droopys Carvalho at 5/6 with Blue Square. If you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket then Stan James offer 5/6 about Mark Wallis' other runner, Eye Onthe Pulse, finishing in front of Carvalho which is also decent value.

    Best of luck to connections and to you if you have a bet.

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