Sky Dogs

If you fancy a fun bet on the Greyhound Derby which lasts the whole competition have a look at Blue Square's Tipping Challenge market.

The competition, as the name suggests, pits a number of well known journalists and TV presenters against each other in a tipping contest.

Tanya Stevenson knows her dogs and looks a big price at 25/1 (each way 1/4 the odds 1,2,3,4). Darrell Williams (25/1) and Errol Blyth (20/1) are two other judges whose opinion is worth listening to and they should do well.

If you fancy the favourites cleaning up then lump on Gary Newbon (33/1) as he's sure to be tipping up the jollies all the way and if anyone opens up a 'Scruffiest Man on Derby Night' market have your proverbials on Richard Birch. The Racing Post's Wimbledon expert looked like he'd got dressed in the dark before going to Plough Lane last year!

Cheers

I'll be doing, as the legendary darts commentator Sid Waddell used to say "the Redcar rumba!" this afternoon if Jaconet wins the 16:15 at the North East track.

David Barron's filly carries top weight but has been in the form of her life since being fitted with blinkers and is the one to beat. I'll have 10 points to win at 9/4 and top up with 20 points to place at 1.40 or better on Betfair.

Res; 1st
Profit / Loss; +33.72 points

I can't believe it's almost twelve months since I was down at Plough Lane for the Greyhound Derby Final. This year's competition kicks off on Friday and it looks like being a cracker.

The sponsors Blue Square have an excellent site with loads of information about the competition. Click here to access their website and get into the mood for the highlight of the British greyhound racing calendar.

An extremely quick post as I've got to be at my daughters school for 'revision evening' is less than half an hour, oh joy -

20:20 Wigrams Turn - 12 points win at 9/4, 24 points place at 1.40
21:20 Bold Adventure - 11 points win at 9/4, 22 points place at 1.66

Wigrams Turn; Lost
Profit / Loss; -24 points (win bet laid off)

Bold Adventure; Lost
Profit / Loss; -33 points

A good card on Sky tonight for the Regency from Hove. Capel Wilson is the favourite for the main event and he has a solid chance. Elsewhere on the card I fancy a few minor surprises, here's my selections for the evening -

20:00 T6 Westmead Lord 9/2 (Bluesq)
20:15 T2 Ard Beauty 5/1 (Totesport)
20:50 T3 Rockburst Mason 11/2 (Totesport)
21:10 T5 Silverduf Jet 4/1 (Bet365)
21:45 T1 Capel Wilson 5/4 (Bet365)

Good luck to all connections.

Only time for a quick post, Moonshine Creek looks set to go well in the 16:30 at Bath this afternoon. He's been well supported this morning but is still decent value at the 11/4 on offer. I'll have 13 points to win and a further 26 points in the place market on Betfair at 1.63 or better.

Res; 1st
Profit / Loss; +53.85 points

The Monday evening meetings at Windsor alway make me feel like summer is on the way, lets hope they bring some profits.

Clive Cox's Red Merlin, who goes in the 18:25, has been transformed by the application of a visor and has been placed in his last five outings. As a result though he's crept up the weights and I think he'll need to improve again to win tonight. He looks opposable to me at 2/1 or less and I'll lay him to lose 17 points. I'll also lay him to lose another 4 points in the place market at anything around 1.40.

Res; 2nd
Profit / Loss; +4.75 points

Nothing to do with gambling I know but rather than go out and get lashed on Stella (which is what plenty of people round my way seem to have done) to celebrate St George's, I went out for a quick spin on my Triumph T100 ... "made in England" as they say -

 

Snow Dancer carries top weight in the 15:30 at Beverley this afternoon and that burden could prove too much for her. Poorly handicapped (in my opinion) and with a strike rate of 3 wins from 34 runs she looks short enough at 3/1.

I'm be prepared to lay her to lose 15 points on Betfair at that price and to lose a further 4 points in the place market at 1.66 or less.

Res; 3rd
Profit / Loss; +0.75 points

Richard Fahey's Trip The Light is the favourite to win the 16:40 at Catterick this afternoon but he looks vunerable to me at both the grade and trip. There's not much depth to the race so he's not without a chance but 15/8 is plenty short enough.

I'll lay him to lose 16 points on Betfair if I can at that price and will also lay him to lose 4 points in the place market if he gets as low as 1.30.

Res; 1st
Profit / Loss; 0 - both bets unmatched (fortunately!)

The Blue Riband from Hall Green is the big race live on Sky tonight. I think favourite backers could well collect in the main event with Jogadusc Ace.

The three dogs I fancy on the card tonight are -

20:50 T2 Freedom Lark 10/3 (Totesport)
21:25 T6 Silverduf Jet 7/2 (Skybet)
21:45 T1 Jogadusc Ace 6/4 (Totesport)

The ever reliable Johnny Moyles has a good preview up on his blog which is alway worth a read. Click here to see what he and some of his site's visitors have picked.

Apprentice handicaps are probably not the safest thing to get involved in but I'm going to risk supporting John Akehurst's Super Frank in the 14:00 at Folkstone. He's not shown much on turf but has been in good nick lately and won at a higher level than this.

The 3/1 available looks fair enough and I'll have 9 points to win with a further 18 points to place if I can get 1.93 or better on Betfair.

Res; 1st
Profit / Loss; +44.11 points

The turf flat season is getting into full swing with the Guineas now less than two weeks away and it seems as good a time as any to give the horses a serious go again. I'm going to start with a 500 point bank which I intend to split into two 250 point banks, one for backing and one for laying.

My first bet was at Pontefract this afternoon where I strongly fancied Kevin Ryan's Advanced in the sprint handicap at 15:10. Unfortunately I had such a poor mobile internet connection it took me forever to get a bet on Betfair leaving no time to post the bet on the blog. Its serious after timing I know but I'm going to log the bet here for my own record at least.

I managed to get 10 points to win at 4.40 on Betfair and wanted another 20 points to place at 1.84 but only half that bet was matched. After commission the win bet netted a 32.30 point profit and the place bet 8 points meaning the 500 point starting bank now stands at 540.30 points.

With a bit of luck I'll get future bets blogged before they actually run!

The horse racing has been pretty quiet for me over the last week but with the glorious weather today I had to get out and do something and ended up having a trip over the border to Kinsley dog track.

Kinsley has a BAGS afternoon on Sundays so it's basically free entry (a quid for the racecard) and it was a most enjoyable way to spend a lazy day in the sunshine drinking Guinness, watching the dogs and fortunately backing a couple of winners.

Above is a shot of the dogs exiting the traps for the 15:27. Trap 4 Victory Song ran on to beat Blue Woman from box 5.

 

OK, Willie Carson is an annoying little pipsqueak, Richard Dunwoody is only a marginally better broadcaster than the incredibly wooden Peter Scudamore he's replaced and Claire Balding is not what you'd call a good 'un but horse racing needs all the exposure it can get and that means keeping it on the Beeb.

Please click here to sign the Number 10 petition in protest at the planned cuts in the BBC racing coverage. It's your licence fee and have a say it what it gets spent on otherwise we're in for more meaningless topping up of Brucie and Wossie's pensions and blowing fortunes on sleep inducing F1 and some posh fags rowing boats up the Thames!

I'm developing a bit of a thing about photo-finishes lately. Three horse racing bets I've had recently have gone to the judge and all three have gone against me. Here's the result along with the Sporting Life in running comments -

21st March - back Distinctive Image to win, result - 2nd by a nose - "driven and ran on close home, just failed"

4th April - back Distinctive Image to win (again!), result - 2nd by a short head - "strong run inside final furlong, not reach winner"

8th April - lay Right Stuff to lose, result - won by a short head - "stayed on well to lead final stride"

As Unlucky Alf from the Fast Show would say ... "bugger"!

Right Stuff (19:50) has been well supported throughout today but this looks a tricky little handicap and his current quote of 5/4 looks plenty short enough. I'm happy to lay him around that on Betfair.

The greyhound version of the Grand National is the big race on Sky this evening. The action comes live from Wimbledon at 7:30pm.

It's an interesting but difficult card and I've only managed to come up with two selections that I think may be a touch of value as below -

20:15 T2 Kellsboro Reject 5/2 (Stan James)
21:45 T2 Platinum Lancelot 3/1 (Stan James)

As ever its worth checking out Johnny Moyles' preview on his excellent blog by clicking here.

Good luck if you have a bet tonight and enjoy the racing.

Obviously the main action today is at Aintree with the Grand National but I fancy a bet over on the all weather at Lingfield.

Distinctive Image (14:45) just failed to land the money when beaten a nose in a four way photo over course and distance a couple of weeks ago. He wasn't suited by the slow early pace in that race and a truer test this afternoon can bring about the improvement required in a slighty tougher race.

Reg Hollinshead's colt is available at 10/3 with several firms and that looks decent value. I'll also top up with a bet to place on Betfair at around 1.70

The Grand National takes place at Aintree tomorrow and the once a year punters will be out in force. Not that I mind, its great the race still captures the public's imagination and so it should too, its a great spectacle and a fantastic occassion.

The race itself is unique and as such it lends itself well to statistcal analysis. Search for 'Grand National trends' on google and you'll find loads of info. For what its worth here's my breakdown of the facts for the first four horses home in the National's from 1998 to 2008 -

Age -

8YO's - 20%
9YO's - 36%
10YO's - 20%
11YO's - 18%
12YO's - 5%

No horse outside this age range has been placed in the period under review which must be a concern for those who have weighed in on the Pricewise ante-post selection Big Fella Thanks.

Weight -

140 to 145 lbs - 39%
146 to 150 lbs - 27%
151 to 155 lbs - 16%
156 to 160 lbs - 7%
161 lbs plus - 11%

I generally don't pay too much attention to weights and would normally favour horses towards the top of the handicap but with the National being a gruelling four and a half miles weight clearly takes its toll. Those carrying up to 155lbs (11st 1lb) have made up 82% of the placed horses. The last winner to carry more than this was Corbiere back in 1983. Current favourite My Will is set to carry 11st 4lb.

Days Since Last Race -

Up to 30 - 55%
31 to 60 - 34%
61 to 90 - 5%
91 plus - 7%

Trainers are generally very good at getting horses fit these days but the stats would imply you really want your selection to have been out in public within the last couple of months.

Starting Price -

10/1 or less - 32%
11/1 to 20/1 - 36%
21/1 to 33/1 - 18%
34/1 to 50/1 - 9%
Over 50/1 - 5%

The National is far less of a lottery than it used to be and you would need good reason to be steaming into anything with a likely SP longer than 33's.

Other factors -

The vast majority of National winners have won a decent race over at least three miles. This doesn't rule out many but of those towards the head of the market Irish Invader has yet to prove he gets a trip. Inexperienced horses also tend to struggle which is a negative for the fancied Big Fella Thanks and Himalayan Trail, though the latter's trainer knows what's required to win the big one. Blinkers is generally seen as a negative due to the size of the field but Comply Or Die bucked that particular trend last year and French breds also have a poor records though I'm sure one will take the race sooner or later.

Conclusions -

Bringing the factors above together I have a short(ish) list of -

Butlers Cabin 9/1 - Irish National winner who was going well when falling on the second circuit last year. Given a chance at the weights to provide Tony McCoy with his first National winner.

L'Ami 25/1 - Rediscovered some form this year for Enda Bolger in cross country races but has twice disappointed in this race.

Cornish Sett 33/1 - Placed in the Welsh National in December. Struggled in last years race but has since had a wind operation and has been in good heart. Slight worry about the fact that he wears blinkers.

Darkness 20/1 - Good novice in 2006 and has come back to form recently. Wear cheekpieces for the first time and although I think he's in with a shout on form he has been pulled up in both the Welsh and Scottish Nationals and all his wins over fences have been in small fields.

Rambling Minster 11/1 - Borders National winner a couple of years back and in the form of his life for the father and son combination of trainer Keith and jockey James Reveley.

Southern Vic 28/1 - Ruby Walsh has opted for My Will ahead of his Dad's runner but Ted knows how to get one ready for this and rider Slippers Madden is a very able pilot. Would appreciate some of the forecast overnight rain.

Kilbeggan Blade 22/1 - Winner of the London National at Sandown and in good form this season. In with a shout if taking to these fences.

Brooklyn Brownie 33/1 - A fast finishing second over these fences in the Grand Sefton in November gave the impression he'd be suited by this test. Wouldn't want too much rain and a slight doubt about whether he has the class to win but should go well at a decent price.

I'm not 100% sure which of these I'll back yet but my advice to punters would be don't afraid to bet on more than one horse. I'll probably back up to four of these to win, if you're an each way punter I wouldn't back more that two or three ... and most important of all, enjoy the race.

Cheers

Chiff Chaff ran a decent race on her reappearance at Wolverhampton last week and on the back of that performance she's been made a best priced 9/4 to land the Goracing.co.uk Handicap (14:50) at Catterick this afternoon.

Given the balance of her form (2 wins from 31 starts) I'd be prepared to lay her at that sort of price in what is a fairly competitive affair. She is no doubt better on this surface than the all weather but there's enough strength in depth in the race to make me think that 9/4 is on the short side and she's worth taking on.
Res - lost (unmatched)