Sky Dogs

Below is my profit / loss on horse racing bets for May -

I know I shouldn't be disappointed with a profit but it could have been much better. Missing out on a couple of winners due to a poor mobile internet connection almost makes me feel like I lost money. I've also tried to increase my number of bets to boost turnover but looking back I made one or two poor wagers - Amerigo at 5/2 in a 15 runner handicap was a shocker!

The internet problem I hope to have resolved by ordering a Vodafone PAYG dongle to use instead of the generally useless 3 one I have and I've been back through my numbers to try an help elimnate poor bets in the future. The latter point highlights the value of keeping detailed records of bets placed.

Overall I am 128.54 points in profit since starting this little experiment in April. Percentage profit on turnover is running at 22% which I think is realistic and hopefully sustainable. We'll see what June has in store.

The Greyhound Derby Final takes place at Wimbledon this evening, it looks an absolute cracker. The race is due off at 22:12 and coverage starts on Sky Sports Extra at 20:00.

Here's my speed figures for the big race -

T2 - Ballymac Ruso 100
T3 - Farloe Reason 97+
T6 - Wise Thought 85
T1 - Fear Zafonic 76+
T4 - Glenard Sunrise 72
T5 - Kinda Ready 54

Ante-post selection Ballymac Ruso (25/1 adv.) heads the figures after some cracking early paced performances. Farloe Reason ran him close in the quarter finals after finding trouble at the first bend and is next best on the clock. Wise Thought has a bit to find but has a great draw in the stripes while Fear Zafonic has the red jacket and is capable of better times than he's recorded so far.

Using a combination of the speed figures, likely early pace scenario's and trap position I've come up with the tissue below -

7/4 Ballymac Ruso, 11/4 Farloe Reason, 9/2 Wise Thought, 11/1 Fear Zafonic, 12/1 Glenard Sunrise, 50/1 Kinda Ready

Ballymac Ruso can be backed at 11/4 and that looks good value to me. He has been trapping brilliantly and if he does the same again tonight he has an excellent chance. Wise Thought is joint favourite with the bookies but looks short enough to me. Martin White's son of 2003 Irish Derby winner Climate Control has the plot draw in trap six but the times suggest he'll need some trouble on the inside to prevail.

Charlie Lister has two through to the final and long term Derby fancy Fear Zafonic's fans were cheering when he drew trap 1 for the final even though no red jacketed runner has won the Derby in 25 attempts at Wimbledon. I think that's just a statistical blip but Zafonic will really have to be on his toes at the boxes to take advantage of his draw. Charlie's other runner, Farloe Reason, is very interesting from a value point of view. On offer at 13/2 with Stan James and Paddy Power he is worth more than a second look. His quarter final performance gives him a big chance with a bit of luck in running.

That leaves us with the two youngsters, Glenard Sunrise and Kinda Ready. The former has shown good early pace to reach the final and is not ruled out completely though his price is about right. Kinda Ready is the rag of the field and isn't that well drawn in five. That said he does tend to miss the kick a bit so may avoid any first bend trouble and will run on strong at the death.

Prediction 2-3-6

Good luck to everyone, lets hope its a great night's racing and that all the dogs come off sound.

Plenty of good horse racing today and I'll be playing these -

15:00 Donc - Wind Star - lay to lose 18 points at 3/1, lay to lose 4 points at 1.60 in place market.

16:40 Donc - Falcativ - 12 points to win at 9/4, 24 points to place at 1.50 or better.

16:45 Hayd - Amerigo - 8 points to win at 5/2.

Wind Star; Lost
Profit / Loss; 0 points (bets cancelled due to numerous non-runners)

Falcativ; Lost
Profit / Loss; -36 points

Amerigo; Lost
Profit / Loss; -8 points

Only time for a quick post I'm afraid.

I've missed some good bets today with a terrible mobile internet connection, I hope sods law doesn't kick in with the one bet I've actually managed to get on!

Micheal Stoute's Kensington Oval goes in the first race of a good card at Sandown Park. He won well first time out last year but was disappointing after that. The stable have kept faith however and it'll hopefully be repaid tonight. Best price is 6/5 which is just about acceptable and I'll have 12 points to win with a further 24 points in the Betfair place market at 1.40 or better.

Res; 3rd
Profit / Loss; -2.88 points

We're down to the final six dogs for the Greyhound Derby which is live on Sky Sports Xtra on Saturday night.

My main ante-post selection Ballymac Ruso (25/1) has made the decider and is now the 5/2 jolly. As well as my ante-post wagers I've been tinkering with a bit of trading on Betfair and have managed to 'green up' as below -

I've only been playing to small stakes so am pleased to be in the current postition. I'll decide if I'm going to have any more bets after evaluating the final fully.

The Greyhound Derby semi's are on Sky Sports Extra on Saturday night along with the heats of the Derby Plate and the Champion Hurdle. It should be a cracking night's racing but I'll unfortunately miss it as I'm away for a long weekend in the Highlands.

From a betting point of view my ante-post voucher on Ballymac Ruso at 25/1 is still standing, he's now generally a 4/1 shot. The back to lay on Glenard Surise also paid off as I backed him at 32 and have now laid him back at 13. I've had a few other trades along the way and am now basically all green on Betfair with the exception of the rags and Cabra Boss.

Liz McNair's dog looks a bit of value at the moment at 25/1 with VC Bet, Skybet and Hills (Ladbrokes go only 16/1) and I'm going to have a small each way bet to hopefully have all the bases covered come final night.

Best of luck to all concerned and to you if you have a bet.

The Greyhound Derby quarter finals are live on Sky Sports 2 tonight in what promises to be an excellent night's racing.

My selections for the evening are below -

19:40 T6 Southern Sunset 9/2 (Skybet)
20:30 T6 Brimardon Star 5/2 (Skybet)
21:05 T1 Cabra Fly 3/1 (Ladbrokes)
21:20 T2 Bandicoot Tipoki 4/1 (Blue Square)

As always Johnny Moyles has an excellent preview up on his manaboutdog blog and its well worth a read.

Also worth checking out is Skybet's offer of a free bet on Saturday's card if you back a dog in the quarter's tonight which doesn't qualify. I'm sure there's some good cover bets to be had playing this against the ante-post market but I haven't worked 'em out yet and I've got to go to work!

Good luck!

You've heard of the group of death in the big footie tournaments, well this is surely the greyhound equivalent -

Trap 1 - Farloe Reason - Northern Puppy Derby & Blue Riband winner.
Trap 2 - Bandicoot Tipoki - Ladbrokes Puppy Derby winner.
Trap 3 - Fear Zafonic - Graphite UK Puppy Derby & Birmingham Cup winner.
Trap 4 - Shelbourne Aston - Irish Derby and Champion Stakes winner.
Trap 5 - Ballymac Ruso - Irish Derby finalist and Monmore track record holder.
Trap 6 - Greenwell River - Shawfield track record holder.

A race that could've been the final itself but it's actually the third of four quarter finals which will take place at Wimbledon on Tuesday. It's one hell of a race and its live on Sky Sports 2, I can't wait!

With so many well fancied dogs drawn together it has caused a bit of a reshuffle in the market. Only three of these dogs can go through and I'd hate to choose which one's they'll be.

The main beneficiary of the draw is Wise Thought who goes in the first elimnator. Martin White's son of Irish Derby winner Climate Control is now favourite for outright honours and although I've traded him for a bit and have one or two small ante-post slips outstanding I won't be topping up at the current 11/2.

Quarter final two looks a wide open affair. Litter mates Cabra Boss and Cabra Fly are currently joint favourites for this one. Cabra Boss makes some each way appeal in the ante-post market at 33/1 with Chandlers and Skybet, Ladbrokes are ducking him going only 20/1.

Windy Millar is odds on for the final eliminator and I wish my local trainer Pat Rosney all the best with his charge. The dog that interests me from a punting point of view though is Matt Dartnall's youngster Glenard Sunrise. He has a plot draw in trap 1 and providing he traps (a bit of a 'if' with a pup) he should safely qualify. Stan James go a stick out 25/1 in the outright market (Laddies 16/1) and that price can be taken with a view to trading out if he qualifies.

Sirvino looks a horse on an upward curve and is decent value at 11/4 to land the Middleham Trainers Association Handicap (16:10) over 10 furlongs at Ripon this afternoon.

David Barron's gelding won last time out at this level and has shown he copes with a bit of cut in the ground. Well backed on both his previous starts this season I expect him to continue the good work today. I'll have 13 points to win at 11/4 or better.

Res; 1st
Profit / Loss; +39.34 points

Well drawn Wi Dud looks a good bet to land the Scarborough Handicap (16:50) at Thirsk this afternoon.

Kevin Ryan's entire is suited by the minimum trip and is used to contesting better races than this. Sportingbet go 9/4 which is a decent offer and I'll have 12 points to win with a further 24 points in the Betfair place market at 1.40 or better.

Res; 3rd
Profit / Loss; -2.48 points

Mark Tompkins' Astrolibra has a good record at Brighton but on the balance of her form I think she needs to come down a pound or two in the handicap before tasting success and for that reason I'm prepared to take her on.

Sportingbet are a best priced 3/1 and I'll join them and lay her to lose 16 points at that price. I'll also lay to lose another 4 points if she gets as low as 1.60 in the place market on Betfair.

Res; Lost
Profit / Loss; +5.06 points (place lay unmatched)

The Blue Square Greyhound Derby has reached the third round stage and is shaping up into a cracker.

At this point we tend to get some real good heats and there are some mouthwatering clashes to look forward to on Saturday night. Irish Derby winner Shelboure Aston takes on current Derby favourite Fear Zafonic in heat 2. Farloe Reason, Ballymac Ruso and Boherna Best all go in heat 4 while Windy Millar and Wise Thought clash in heat 8 ... if that lot doesn't get you going then you need to check for a pulse!

From a betting point of view I've already backed Ballymac Ruso each way at 25/1 and traded several dogs for bets to nothing on Betfair but is there any value to be had ahead of the third round? Comparing Ladbrokes prices to those available elsewhere as before the last round throws up a few possibilities.

The 'magic sign' tend to be short about jollies but they are taking fairly strong measures about current market leader Fear Zafonic. Laddies are shortest of all the bookies going 5/1 while 8's is available with Coral and Bet365. Charlie Lister's son of Premier Fantasy has only once been out of the first three in 21 races, a stat which suggest's he's nailed on to reach the final. He isn't unbeatable though and often finds trouble early in a race, something which could cost him in the ultimate test. At this stage, given the odds, he won't be carrying any of my cash.

Ladbrokes are also shortest about second favourite Boherna Best going only 7/1 when plenty of 10/1 is available elsewhere. I was impressed with Barrie Draper's dog when I saw him take the Laurels at Belle Vue last October and he's been campaigned with this race in mind. Generally very good from the boxes I'd be seriously tempted if it weren't for the fact that he is in with Farloe Reason and Ballymac Ruso on Saturday.

Bandicoot Tipoki (10/1 Lads, 16/1 Totesport) has always been respected by the Rayners Lane outfit but as mentioned previously he is still only a pup and his inconsistency at the traps makes him a risky proposition for me. Laddies are also short about another youngster, Glenard Sunrise, who takes on Tipoki in heat 6. It should be another interesting clash but these dogs are for watching rather than punting on at this stage.

Other dogs worth a look are Cabra Boss (25/1 Lads, 50/1 Stan James) and Droopys Noel (20/1 Lads, 50/1 various). Cabra Boss is a consistent hound but may lack the class for this, he's also in a tough heat up against Fear Zafonic and Shelbourne Aston. Droopys Noel goes in heat 7 at the weekend and having avoided the big guns he should qualify. He won the Irish Puppy Derby last year and the Easter Cup at Shelbourne Park recently (beating Ballymac Under) proving he's a more than capable competition dog. Stan James were 66/1 about Pat Buckley's charge, that's now been taken but several firms go 50/1 and I'll add him to my big race portfolio with an each way wager.

Just time for a quick post ...

Earlsmedic is expected to go well in the sprint handicap at 16:30 at Yarmouth. Competitive at this grade and with headgear re-applied he looks value at 11/4 (plenty of 4.0 on Betfair).

I'll have 16 points to win and a further 32 points to place at 1.60 or better.

Res; 1st
Profit / Loss; +61.44 points

After backing a string of losers :-/ I'm hoping to contiune this evening with these two -

19:25 Ripon; Granston - lay to lose 14 points at 3/1 in the win market, lay to lose 3 points at 1.80 in the place market.

20:00 Ripon; Lucky Dancer - lay to lose 18 points at 5/2 in the win market, lay to lose 4 points at 1.47 in the place market.

Granston; 1st
Profit / Loss; -3 points (win lay unmatched)

Lucky Dancer; Lost
Profit / Loss; +15.29 points

Mick Dancer looks a worthy favourite for the 10 furlong handicap at Windsor tonight.

William Muir's gelding finshed off last season in good heart and could still be on the upgrade. He's competitive at this level and should go close. I'll have 9 points to win at 5/2 or better.

Res; Lost
Profit / Loss; -9 points (resolve being tested!)

Course and distance winner Moonshine Creek did me a favour when winning just over a week ago and I'm hoping Peter Hiatt's gelding can do the business again this afternoon.

Stan James, William Hill and Sportingbet all offer 3/1 and I'll have 12 points to win at that price and a further 24 points in the Betfair place market if I can get 1.84 or better.

Res; Lost
Profit / Loss; -36 points

Lady Sky has been well backed for the staying handicap at Catterick this evening but supporting mares in big handicaps when as short as 9/4 has to be a way to the poor house.

I'll lay her to lose 17 points at those odds and to lose a further 4 points in the place market at 1.60 or less.

Res; Lost
Profit / Loss; +13.5 points

There's a tough card on Sky Sports 2 this evening for the Peterborough Puppy Derby meeting.

I've struggled to find a bet tonight but if pushed I'd be on Cobra Striking in the 20:15. I don't like betting dogs at odds on but if you have to the 4/5 with Hills will surely beat SP.

Cheers

The Blue Square Greyhound Derby continues with the second round heats being run on the 8th and 9th of May.

With all the dogs having now had a look at the Plough Lane circuit and the bookies still offering generous each way terms of 1/4 the odds to reach the final it's a good time step into the market.

I always like to look at Ladbrokes prices in big events and note the dogs they are short about. If I agree with their thinking and there's enough juice in the prices elsewhere then hopefully I've found a value bet.

Here's my thought's so far -

Deanridge Fury (14/1 Lads, 20/1 various) - Dean Childs' Manchester Puppy Cup winner has excellent early pace, he should progress from Heat 13 and can go deep into the competititon.

Bandicoot Tipoki (14/1 Lads, 25/1 Coral, Skybet) - Charlie Lister's son of Crash is still only a pup and while he is some prospect he is still learning the game. His inconsistency at the boxes means he won't be carrying any of my cash.

Ballymac Ruso (Ladbrokes 14/1, 25/1 VC Bet) - proved himself a big competition dog when reaching the Irish Derby final last year. Quick from the boxes and a nice draw in the final qualifier he looks good value each way at 25/1.

Ballymac Under (16/1 Ladbrokes, 33/1 Stan James) - a littermate of Ruso who was the ante-post favourite for last years Derby. Has switched to Pa Fitzgerald's kennel since then but has a tough heat in the next round up against Ninja Jamie and Droopys Noel.

Other dogs at longer prices to consider are -

2008 Irish Puppy Derby and Easter Cup winner Droopys Noel (33/1 Lads, 80/1 Skybet, Totesport)

2009 Scottish Derby winner Greenwell River (33/1 Lads, 50/1 various)

Lightly raced Easter Cup semi-finalist Fatboyz Nodrog (33/1 Lads, 66/1 Skybet, Stan James)

2007 Easter Cup winner Tyrur Kenny (25/1 Lads, 66/1 VC Bet)

In summary Ballymac Ruso is the dog I like at this stage and 25/1 looks a decent price, Deanridge Fury is worth serious consideration but for now I'll have a bet on Ruso and have another look at the market after this set of qualifiers.

Cheers

Not particularly strong fancies but I think both these should go well -

15:25 Windsor - Trans Siberian - 9 points win at 5/2 or better
17:00 Kempton - Blockley - 9 points win at 3/1 or better

Cheers

Trans Siberian; 2nd
Profit / Loss; -9 points

Blockley; 3rd
Profit / Loss; 0 (bet unmatched)

Below is my profit / loss account for April on horse racing -

It's a promising start but I seriously doubt the current rate of profit is sustainable. Over 120 points profit from 213 points staked is 56% on turnover. That's very high and if I'm anywhere near 20% come the end of the year I'll be extremely happy.

Note that these records show only my horse racing bets. This is (at the moment!) my area of serious betting. I do have other bets but they're more 'fun' bets than anything ... although they are more fun when they win!

Andrew Balding's Little Pete looks to hold a decent chance in the closing race at Goodwood this afternoon. He's run well here before and is competitive at this level. The 100/30 put up by Victor Chandler and Paddy Power is a fair offer and I'll have 16 points to win with a further 32 points on the Betfair place market at 1.70 or better.

Res; 2nd
Profit / Loss; +6.8 points

I don't fancy market leader Sirvino in the 15:30 at Musselburgh this afternoon. He landed a gamble last time out but is up in class today and doesn't look too well treated on what he's shown so far. I'll lay to lose 18 points at 5/2 in the win market on Betfair and a further four points to place if he gets as short as 1.50.

Res; 1st
Profit / Loss; -18 points (place bet unmatched)