Sky Dogs

Not much time for a write up this week but going with these -

Buccs +7 (10/11 Blue Square)
Lions +7 (4/5 Bet365)
Bills +6 (20/21 Sporting Bet)
Dolphins +6 (5/6 Bet365)

Here's my lines for this week's NFL match-ups -

Falcons @ Patriots - Pats by 3.0
Browns @ Ravens - Ravens by 11.5
Packers @ Rams - Packers by 2.0
Jaguars @ Texans - Texans by 3.5
Chiefs @ Eagles - Eagles by 11.5
Giants @ Buccaneers - Giants by 2.0
49'ers @ Vikings - Vikings by 7.5
Titans @ Jets - Pick 'em
Redskins @ Lions - Redskins by 0.5
Bears @ Seahawks - Seahawks by 1.5
Saints @ Bills - Pick 'em
Broncos @ Raiders - Raiders by 3.0
Dolphins @ Chargers - Dolphins by 0.5
Steelers @ Bengals - Steelers by 5.5
Colts @ Cardinals - Colts by 2.0
Panthers @ Cowboys - Cowboys by 4.5

It's the first round of the Laurels tonight at Belle Vue and a couple of dogs look overpriced to me. Barbies Man (20:40) and Anhid Bertie (21:25) are both available at 3/1 with Skybet and look decent value to me.

A decent opening week with my against the spread selections 2-1 and the Colts winning straight up.

This week looks decidely tough with only a couple of games having lines much different than my own -

New Orleans @ Philadelphia - On the numbers the Eagles look interesting getting a point from the Saints but that spread is skewed by the likely abscence of Eagles QB Donovan McNabb making this game one to pass on.

Baltimore @ San Diego - Opposing the Charger paid off last week and I'm hoping it proves so again. The spread for this one opened with the Ravens getting five but that quickly contracted and is now +3.5 at best. That's still a touch of value in my book and is my only wager on a difficult week.

Sebastian Sylvester and Giovanni Lorenzo slug it out this evening in Germany for the vacant IBF middleweight title. Sylvester is the favourite for what looks a decent contest. I think he can take the title inside the distance and the 5/1 with Bet365 about him doing so is a bit of value.

Lenny Daws takes on Barry Morrison for the vacant British light-welterweight title tonight, live on Sky Sports 1. Morrison took the title from Daws a couple of years ago but the London man is out for revenge and the 15/2 about him winning inside the distance with Skybet looks a bit of value.

The Kent St Leger is down for decision at Crayford this evening and while the admirable Midway Skipper should win the race for second spot should be a good contest. For me it's between the Darren Whitton pair Ard Beauty and Rough Mariah. Both are avaiable at 8/1 and I'm just coming down on the side of Mariah for a little each way punt.

Here's my own lines for this week's games, some good match ups but not too much to get excited about from a betting point of view at the moment -

Cardinals @ Jaguars - Jags by 1.5
Panthers @ Falcons - Falcons by 4
Bengals @ Packers - Packers by 8
Texans @ Titans - Titans by 7
Vikings @ Lions - Vikings by 9
Patriots @ Jets - Pats by 1.5
Saints @ Eagles - Eagles by 6
Raiders @ Chiefs - Chiefs by 1
Rams @ Redskins - Redskins by 7.5
Seahawks @ 49ers - 49ers by 3
Buccaneers @ Bills - Bills by 2
Ravens @ Chargers - Ravens by 1
Browns @ Broncos - Broncos by 4.5
Steelers @ Bears - Steelers by 0.5
Giants @ Cowboys - Cowboys by 0.5
Colts @ Dolphins - Colts by 1

A couple of games tonight and its the San Diego against Oakland which appeals from a punting point of view.

The Chargers should be top dogs in the AFC West come the end of the season and they should win tonight but they were a slightly disappointing 8-8 last year and perhaps not as good everyone seems to think they are. I have them winning by three tonight which makes the Raiders getting a ten point start at home worth a bet.

The first Sunday of the new season is upon us, I'm looking forward to it big time ... and hoping a few profitable wagers will add to the enjoyment.

Using my own lines and comparing to them to the bookies throws up some interesting games this week -

Dallas @ Tampa - on last seasons numbers I make the Bucc's favourites for this but the layers have them as 5.5 point underdogs. I am very tempted to go for the home side here but with a rookie head coach, new quarterback and the fact that they've just fired their offensive co-ordinator I'm going to sit this one out.

Denver @ Cincinnati - another rookie coach in action here with Josh McDaniels in charge of the Bronco's. Purely on numbers I think they are decent value getting five but since last season they've lost QB Jay Cutler while the Bengals have got their own number signal caller back in Carson Palmer making this one another swerve.

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis - Indianapolis are now without head coach Tony Dungy but still have a strong roster and should have too many guns for the Jaguars. I don't like giving up big spreads though so I'm going to back the Colts straight up at 1/3 or better.

Philadelphia @ Carolina - I think the Panthers can win this one so getting 3 points on the spread is a bonus. It should be a close game but I'll take the home side to get off to a winning start.

The NFL season kicks off this evening with the Titans at the Steelers.

The defending Superbowl champs have been backed down to 6.5 point favourites from an opening Vegas line of 5 to start their campaign with a win.

The Titans however have won four of the last five meetings between the sides and based on last season's performances I have the Steelers as only 1.5 point favourites. That makes the Titans good value at +6.5 and worth a punt tonight.

Here are my own lines for the opening week of the NFL season. I'll compare these lines to the bookmakers to try and identify value bets.

Titans @ Steelers - Steelers by 1.5
Cowboys @ Buccs - Buccs by 3.5
Broncos @ Bengals - Bengals by 1
Lions @ Saints - Saints by 12
Jags @ Colts - Colts by 11
Chiefs @ Ravens - Ravens by 11.5
Dolphins @ Falcons - Falcons by 2
Vikings @ Browns - Vikings by 5.5
Jets @ Texans - Texans by 3.5
Eagles @ Panthers - Panthers by 3
49'ers @ Cardinals - Cardinals by 2.5
Rams @ Seahawks - Seahawks by 7
Redskins @ Giants - Giants by 6.5
Bears @ Packers - Packers by 3.5
Bills @ Patriots - Patriots by 8
Chargers @ Raiders - Chargers by 3

Also too big for me in tonights heats -

20:41 - Kinda Handy - 8 points to win at 9/4 (VC Bet, Skybet, Paddy Power)
20:57 - Mario Gomez - 3.5 points to win at 9/2 (Boylesports, Stan James, Coral)

The heats start this evening at Glenroe Ginger (19:37) is overpriced at 11/8 with Skybet. I'll have 12 points to win.

Only time for a quick post -

16:55 Goodwood - Effigy - 34 points to place at 1.85 or better.

Result; 2nd
Profit / Loss; 0.00 points (bet unmatched)

With so much change in the NFL from season to season I don't think its too wise to get heavily involved in the ante-post markets. Season long bets do however add a bit of interest and I'm going to look at each division to try and identify some value.

AFC East

With Tom Brady back in the saddle the Patriots should dominate this division but the bookies know that too so their offer of 1/4 is hardly attractive.

I make the Jets the second best side in the division and although they have a tough start I think if they don't lose confidence in rookie QB Mark Sanchez they can finish strongly and chase the Pats home. Ladbrokes offer 2/1 about them finishing runners up here and that looks fair enough to me.

AFC North

This section is likely to be dominated by the Steelers and the Ravens and I expect them to finish in that order.

It's gonna be tough for the Browns and the Bengals although the latter have Carson Palmer back at QB which is a plus.

The Browns finished 4-12 last year and not much has happened to make me think they're going to improve a great deal. For that reason my bet for this section is for the Cleveland outfit to have less than seven wins. Stan James offer the best price of 1/2.

AFC South

The big question here will be how the Indianapolis Colts will cope without the now retired head coach Tony Dungy. My guess is that with the talent they have they'll be fine and will bounce back to take the divisional crown from the Titans.

13/8 with Stan James is the best price about them doing so and that looks fair enough to me.

AFC West

The Chargers have the roster to dominate this section but the best price of 2/7 hardly sets the pulse racing.

The Bronco's were runners up in this division last season but I think they're going to struggle this time under rookie head coach Josh McDaniels. They traded arguably their best player, QB Jay Cutler, to the Bears and his favourite target, the troubled Brandon Marshall, is currently suspended for training camp misdemeanors. The under seven wins for the season looks good here and that's my bet at 8/15.

NFC East

Probably the best division in the NFL, certainly the toughest. I can't split the Giants, Eagles and Cowboys this time round which makes Extrabet's offer of 7/2 about the Dallas outfit landing the section the value bet.

NFC North

Another cracking division with the Packers, Vikings and Bears all vying for honours.

Things could be very tight come the end of the season but Chicago look to have the toughest start being at Green Bay in week 1 and then at home to Pittsburgh the following week. They could well lose both these games so my bet will be to lay the Bears in the divisional market at around 2/1 and then hopefully back them back again after week 2 locking in a profit.

NFC South

Another potential three way go here with the Saints, Falcons and Panthers all capable of winning this section.

The 11/4 about the Falcons doing so is tempting but as it's tight I'm going to try a little trade based on the fact they have the easier start of the three contenders. I think by the conclusion of week two the position will be -

Atlanta 2-0
New Orleans 1-1
Carolina 0-2

Backing the Falcons now and laying off after week two looks the best play to me.

NFC West

A tough section to find a wager. I think Arizona will probably take the division but the 13/8 offered is probably about right. Seattle and San Francisco could both improve and push them hard and its to the Seahawks I turn for a bet.

I expect Jim Mora's team to win their opener at home to the Rams. If that's the case they will contract in price of the division. After that though they travel to the 49'ers, face Chicago at home and then go to the Colts. They could lose all three of those games going from 1-0 to 1-3. If things work out that way the bet is to lay the Seahawks for the division after week 1 and back them back again after week 4.

The Irish Derby reaches the semi final stages this evening at Shelbourne Park.

Shaneboy Lee goes in the first semi and is up against the outright favourite for the event, College Causeway. The latter is one heck of a dog and has every chance of going onto outright glory but tonight the value lies with Shaneboy Lee who is available at 4/1 with Bet365 and is worth a tickle. I'll have 3.5 points to win.

After a poor run I'm just trying to get one on the board today -

16:10 Chepstow - Inside Story - 32 points to place at 1.75 or better.

Result; Lost
Profit / Loss; -32.00 points (woefully out of form!)

A quick late post on the big card at Romford this evening -

19:40 T1 Ardbeg Kate - 11 points to win at 11/8 (Hills)
20:15 T2 Melodys Comet - 11 points to win at 11/8 (Hills)

I also think Westmead Nini could go better than the price suggests (16/1 Skybet) in the 20:35.